I love elections. They're hilarious and weird and the stakes are huge and most of the people who compete are either interesting or insane. This time around the Republican field is actually pretty cool, in a weird way. I'd say there are four categories of candidates:
1. Libertarians - Ron Paul and Gary Johnson. Combined, they have a 0% chance of winning
2. Crazy people - Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Buddy Roemer. I think Michele Bachmann has maybe a 1% chance of winning, and the rest have zero. But they're kind of funny!
3. Semi-sane people who are going to pretend to be crazy to win votes - Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty. Combined, they probably have a...75% chance of winning? I dunno. it
4. Sane people - Mitch Daniels, Jon Huntsman. I guess this means they have a 25% chance of winning. The problem with being sane in the GOP is that the GOP has lately become relatively divorced from reality (see birtherism, climate change denialism, the Ryan plan, individual mandate, whatever).
There's a fifth category, but it is hypothetical:
5. White nights - Rick Perry, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush. These are people who GOP elites are trying to get to run because they think the candidates in categories 1-4 all suck. Mitch Daniels is technically in this group right now, but I think it's fairly likely that he runs.
Anyway, that's it. We've got a good cross-section of personalities there, as well as an unusually strong crop of sane people who have a real shot at winning. I may write profiles of some of the cooler cats later.
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